Sir John Curtice: Burnham's win represents remarkable personal success for him
BBC News 2026-06-19 04:46:48
Context: Andy Burnham, the outgoing Greater Manchester mayor, has won the Makerfield by-election, securing a remarkable personal success by retaining and increasing Labour's share of the vote in a seat that had been considered prime territory for Reform UK, a party founded by Nigel Farage. Burnham's victory has significant implications for the Labour Party and its leader, Sir Keir Starmer, as it contrasts with Labour's poor performance in other recent by-elections. The by-election result may pave the way for Burnham to challenge Starmer as Labour Party leader.
Key Facts
- Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, retaining 45% of the vote share Labour won in 2024 and increasing it by 10 points, a significant turnaround given Labour's declining support in other by-elections.
- Burnham's success was largely due to his ability to persuade many 2024 Labour voters to return to the fold, with polls suggesting that four in five of those who backed Labour two years ago voted for him.
- The Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green parties collectively won only 3% of the vote, down 19 points from 2024, with the Liberal Democrats achieving their worst ever by-election performance with 0.4% of the vote.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, failed to capitalize on its potential support in Makerfield, a seat with a high proportion of Leave voters, with its support increasing by only three points on 2024.
- In contrast to Burnham's success, the Conservative Party saw a 25-point increase in its share of the vote in the Aberdeen South by-election, turning the ballot into a referendum on the UK and Scottish governments' net zero policy.