Bitcoin price has limited downside, likely near bottom, contrarian indicator suggests
CoinDesk 2026-06-23 08:24:00
Context: The bitcoin price is nearing a critical juncture where its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is about to drop below the 100-week average, a bearish signal that has historically marked a market bottom and the beginning of a renewed bull run. This "bear cross" is expected to occur as soon as next week, with the current bitcoin price trading near $62,400. The impending bear cross has been a contrarian indicator in the past, suggesting that the bear market has nearly run its course.
Key Facts
- The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin's price is very close to dropping below the 100-week average, a bearish signal known as a "bear cross" that could occur as soon as next week.
- There have been three such bear crosses in bitcoin's history, and each marked a market bottom, signaling the end of a decline and the beginning of a three-year rally.
- The bear cross is based on the 50-week average, representing roughly one year, and the 100-week average, with the 50-week average currently at $89,771 and the 100-week average at $88,397.
- The imminent bear cross is essentially a reflection of the 50% drop in bitcoin price from $126,000 in October to nearly $60,000, and has limited predictive power at best.
- Critics argue that three past instances of the bear cross are not enough to draw a definite conclusion, but the contrarian record of the bear cross is consistent with the reputation of ultra-long-duration moving averages as "lagging" indicators.