Bitcoin may need to plunge 15% or more to mark bottom, according to this long-time indicator
CoinDesk 2026-06-23 13:08:31
Context: Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, a long-term support indicator, and investors are closely watching whether it can hold. The cryptocurrency's price may need to plunge 15% or more to mark its bottom, according to a long-time indicator. The $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground.
Key Facts
- Bitcoin's realized price, currently around $53,457, has historically been breached during every major bear market before a cycle bottom was established.
- Large whale cohorts have a cost basis between roughly $49,000 and $54,300, indicating potential support, with whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC having a realized price of roughly $54,300.
- The realized price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation and has historically served as a key support level during the depths of bear markets.
- If history repeats, bitcoin would likely need to trade below the aggregate realized price before a definitive bear market bottom is established, which could lead to increased investor stress and potential panic selling.
- Retail investors holding less than 1 BTC have a realized price below $48,000, suggesting that smaller holders remain comfortably in profit even if bitcoin declines further.