Forget max pain theory. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet going into $10 billion options expiry
CoinDesk 2026-06-25 07:24:59
Context: Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly ahead of a $10 billion options expiry on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange, with the current price around $61,700, far below the supposed expiry magnet of $72,000. This development has cast doubt on the popular "max pain" theory, which suggests that prices tend to gravitate toward a level where options buyers lose the most. The max pain level for this expiry stands at $72,000, significantly above current spot prices.
Key Facts
- Bitcoin's price has fallen from about $67,000 to below $60,000 ahead of a $10 billion options expiry on Deribit, undermining the popular "max pain" theory that prices gravitate toward a level where options buyers lose the most.
- The current max pain level for Friday's expiry is around $72,000, far above spot prices of around $61,700, and recent settlements have not shown the expected price "pinning" effect, reinforcing skepticism among options experts.
- Options worth $10 billion will expire on Deribit on Friday at 8:00 ET, with the expiry seen as a major liquidity event likely to spur volatility as billions of dollars in contracts expire or roll into future dates.
- The max pain theory suggests that ahead of expiry, option writers actively try to push the spot price toward the max pain level, effectively pinning bitcoin there, but recent expiries have not shown this effect.
- Despite skepticism around the max pain theory, Deribit has described the June expiry as one of the year's biggest liquidity events, with billions of dollars in contracts set to expire or roll over into future settlements, a process that often fuels heightened volatility.