Warsh's comments set the stage for U.S. jobs data to ignite bitcoin, gold rally
CoinDesk 2026-07-02 11:47:06
Context: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments on inflation have sparked a reassessment of interest-rate increase prospects, leading to a bounce in bitcoin and gold prices. The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, may further determine the trajectory of these assets. If the jobs data shows clear labor-market weakness, it could accelerate the recovery rallies in bitcoin and gold.
Key Facts
- The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a 110,000 increase in jobs for June, down from 172,000 in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
- Average hourly earnings are forecast to edge up to 3.5% from 3.4%, and weaker labor market numbers would validate Warsh's view on inflation and reduce the case for aggressive Fed rate increases.
- Bitcoin has pushed above $61,000, and gold has stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier in the week, with both assets potentially set for a rally if the jobs data shows labor-market weakness.
- Economists expect the jobs data to show clear labor-market weakness, which would mean less money in the hands of workers and salaried employees, translating into softer consumer demand and lower demand-pull inflation.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for bitcoin is flashing a bullish divergence, a signal of weakening downside momentum and a potential trend reversal higher, as the price fell to 21-month lows earlier in the week while the RSI held relatively resilient above its recent lows.