Bitcoin is nearing a power law support line Fidelity has tracked since 2015
CoinDesk 2026-07-12 11:30:00
Context: Bitcoin is approaching a critical support line, known as the power law support line, which has historically predicted major bottoms in the cryptocurrency's price since 2015. According to Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, this line is currently around $58,000, and Bitcoin's recent price of around $62,700 is getting close to it. Timmer believes that this area may become an accumulation zone, but he does not see a catalyst for a significant price bounce yet.
Key Facts
- Bitcoin's price is nearing the lower support line of a power-law price model around $58,000, which has caught every major bottom since 2015, according to Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro.
- The power-law model plots Bitcoin's entire price history on a logarithmic chart bounded by three curves — an upper resistance line, a middle trendline, and a lower support line.
- Measures of how far Bitcoin trades below its trendline and relative to gold have fallen to depths last seen at the 2018 and 2022 lows, with the gap currently at negative 56% and the 52-week reading on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at around negative 100%.
- Timmer expects Bitcoin could drift sideways near support for months absent a liquidity catalyst, noting that speculative capital has rotated from Bitcoin to gold and now into semiconductor stocks.
- The speculative premium that pushed Bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone, and global money supply growth is slowing, according to Timmer, who sees no catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns.