Prediction markets just crushed traditional sportsbooks in a massive $50 billion World Cup breakout
CoinDesk 2026-07-14 11:00:00
Context: The 2026 FIFA World Cup has triggered a massive surge in prediction markets, with platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rothera topping $50 billion in monthly volume. This sudden growth has allowed prediction markets to outpace traditional sportsbooks, attracting a large number of female and first-time bettors. Major institutional trading firms are now actively participating in the space, treating prediction markets like legitimate financial derivatives.
Key Facts
- Kalshi posted $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June, a more than 70% jump from May, with sports contracts accounting for around 85% of its trading, and its World Cup-specific volume reached $22.42 billion.
- Polymarket's international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion overall trading volume, while its regulated U.S. platform separately logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May's total.
- Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, processed $2 billion in its debut month and already accounts for 7% of the U.S. prediction market, according to Bank of America.
- U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket's political markets over the past year, more than any other country, ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million, with this activity occurring on Polymarket's global platform through VPNs and existing crypto wallets.
- Kalshi's female users grew 106% during the tournament, more than twice the 54% growth rate among male users, with 33.3% of Kalshi's user base being female by late June, compared with 22 to 23% for DraftKings and FanDuel.