U.S. June CPI fell 0.4%, likely cooling move toward Fed rate hikes
CoinDesk 2026-07-14 12:33:24
Context: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in June, a larger-than-expected decline that may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates at its late-July meeting. This unexpected drop in inflation could potentially halt the growing anticipation of a Fed rate hike in July. The news had immediate effects on financial markets, with Bitcoin, US stock index futures, and bond yields all reacting to the softer-than-expected inflation data.
Key Facts
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.4% in June, compared to economist forecasts for a decline of 0.1% and May's sharp rise of 0.5%.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in June, versus forecasts of 0.2% and May's 0.2% increase, with a year-over-year rise of 2.6% against expectations for 2.8% and 2.9% in May.
- On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 3.5% versus forecasts for 3.8% and 4.2% in May.
- Following the release of the CPI data, Bitcoin rose to $63,400, up about 2% over the past 24 hours, while US stock index futures also rose, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.25%.
- The probability of a Fed rate hike in July had risen to as high as 42% from just 8% one month ago, according to CME FedWatch, before the CPI data was released, with Fed Governor Chris Waller implying he would be in favor of an immediate rate hike if core CPI did not come down.