Here's why bitcoin bulls should take a closer look at interest rates
CoinDesk 2026-07-22 11:23:36
Context: Bitcoin has regained its footing, sparking optimism among market observers that a decisive bull run may be underway, with some predicting valuations could exceed last year's $126,000 peak. However, a closer look at trends in bitcoin and Nasdaq valuations, adjusted for the cost of capital represented by the U.S. 10-year yield, suggests that bull runs may be more measured. The current market dynamics are influenced by various factors, including interest rates and energy prices.
Key Facts
- Bitcoin's current price is $66,011.27, and despite recent gains, its ratio relative to the U.S. 10-year yield has failed to eclipse its 2020-2021 peak, indicating that the true macro tops for bitcoin likely occurred in 2020-21.
- The BTC/US10Y and Nasdaq/US10Y ratios have not exceeded their 2020-2021 peaks, even though their dollar-denominated prices have set new record highs over the past 12 months.