Key Facts

• The attacks on oil tankers were carried out by Iran and the Houthis, two prominent players in the region with a history of conflict with Western powers and their allies.
• The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by September 30 is considered likely, with a 28% probability assigned to this outcome, indicating a significant risk to global oil supplies.
• The escalation of tensions in the Gulf region has serious implications for the global economy, as the area is a critical passage for oil shipments and disruptions can have far-reaching consequences for energy markets.